Mindanaotoday.com | Normin to experience El Niño until 1st Qtr 2024
By: Jan Albert Araña
MISAMIS ORIENTAL – Despite the underlying conditions of the El Niño phenomenon being observed by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration-Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (PAGASA MPRSD), the weather bureau shared that the region is not yet under El Niño, but has a chance to experience such a weather condition attributed to the increased temperature in the Pacific Ocean at the central and eastern equatorial pacific.
“Init karon ang atoang kadagatan sa Pacific Ocean, which is indicative of El Niño lying conditions, pero wala pa ta sa El Niño sa pagkakaron; but taas na ang chance [na mag-El Niño] tungod kay nakita nato ang weekly na pag-init sa atoang karagatan, which mao ang weekly anomaly,” PAGASA Weather Specialist Daizyree Flores said.
(Our ocean, the Pacific Ocean, is now getting warm, which is indicative of El Niño lying conditions, but we are not yet in El Niño as of now; but chances are high [to have El Niño] because we can observe the weekly warming of our ocean, which is a weekly anomaly)
In their observation, it is not just the surface water of the ocean that is warming up but also the lower part of the ocean, which increases the possibility of El Niño.
PAGASA shared that there is a below fifty percent chance of El Niño for the months of April, May, and June; however, come May, June, and July, their observation shows that the chance of El Niño occurring is at eighty-two percent.
“Last March 24, PAGASA issued ‘El Niño Watch’; however, on May 2, it was upgraded to ‘El Niño Alert’ since more than a 17% chance of El Niño is being observed to occur in the next few months. And we can see that it will not only sustain in two months and up, but even in January and February next year, there is a high chance of having El Niño,” she added.
Moreover, there is a high percentage from December until January and February 2024 that the strength of El Niño is weak, but the public should not discount the more than 50% possibility that it will become strong. There is also a high chance that El Niño can bring below-normal rainfall, such as meteorological dry spells and droughts, to Mindanao. (JAKA/PIA-10)
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